2005 - Mexico - Environmental Modelling Assessment

[In Spanish] This paper aims to analyze the structure of the sub model Social and Environmental Effects (SEE), included in the version 1.3 of the Highway Development and Management System (HDM-4). Several studies have been carried out describing other sub models within the HDM-4 and regional experiences using this tool to manage road networks as well. Recently the Mexican Institute for Transportation (IMT) published a study concerning sensibility analysis of asphalt pavement deterioration model for Mexican conditions. However, this is the first attempt to analyse the potential use of the SEE in Mexico. Even though the SEE includes the analysis of the energy balance and the vehicle emissions, only the latter will be considered in this paper due to the lack of information concerning energy expenditures for relevant activities in Mexico. In spite of the fact that the model doesn?t provide accurate results because of the use of aggregated data and several simplifications in the model when representing the emission formation processes, it is concluded that the potential in the use of the SEE as an integral part of the HDM-4 is large, even more when the mechanisms and tools to calculate emissions from road transport are either too expensive or too complex to implement. It is also desirable to conduct other studies in order to calibrate the model, activity which requires a concerting effort from society, government and researchers due to the costs involved. Nevertheless, the benefits obtained could match or even surpass the costs, especially if externalities are taken into account.